Weather Alert in Texas
Hydrologic Outlook issued August 24 at 1:34AM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
AREAS AFFECTED: Brooks, TX
DESCRIPTION: ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in Deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.2 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [08/20/2025 - 11/18/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month.
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Weather Topic: What are Cirrostratus Clouds?
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Next Topic: Cirrus Clouds
Cirrostratus clouds are high, thin clouds that form above
20,000 feet and are made mostly of ice crystals. They sometimes look like giant
feathers, horse tails, or curls of hair in the sky.
These clouds are pushed by the jet stream and can move at high speeds reaching
100 mph.
What do they indicate?
They indicate that a precipitation is likely within 24 hours.
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Weather Topic: What is Condensation?
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Condensation is the process which creates clouds, and therefore
it is a crucial process in the water cycle.
Condensation is the change of matter from a state of gas into a state of liquid,
and it happens because water molecules release heat into the atmosphere and
become organized into a more closely packed structure, what we might see as
water droplets.
Water is always present in the air around us as a vapor, but it's too small for
us to see. When water undergoes the process of condensation it becomes organized
into visible water droplets. You've probably seen condensation happen before on the
surface of a cold drink!
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